(We'll add a seat for you.) Arrive on Wed. Learn from an insider How Things Happen in Washington, D.C., then stay as our guest for the long-ago-sold-out 1-day seminar with Roy H. 17-18: Two amazing days at Wizard Academy, one low tuition. Overconfidence is the rocket fuel of incredibly dumb decisions.Īs my older and wiser friend Loren Lewis used to say when I was 17, “Don’t let your alligator mouth overload your mockingbird ass.” (Psychologists call this “ magical thinking“ and it's often associated with schizophrenia.) But each of the stock traders was convinced he had figured out exactly which combinations of buttons made the line go up. Keep in mind the buttons had no effect whatsoever on the line. At the end of each session, the traders were asked to rate their effectiveness in moving the line upward. As the line moved across the screen, the traders were asked to press a series of buttons, which, they were told, might or might not affect the course of the line. One of O’Creevy’s tests involved a computer program that mimicked the ups and downs of the stock market. That prophetic book was the result of a 3-year study O’Creevy conducted involving 118 managers and traders at four leading investment banks. In 2004, Oxford University Press published a book by psychologist Mark Fenton-O’Creevy. But when a man volunteers to wear the handcuffs of public opinion, his words become flaccid and his advice becomes suspect. (Yes, I’m fully aware this comment will anger some people. I included the Iraqi War memory because, other than the recent mortgage meltdown, I couldn’t think of a more stinging example of overconfidence than our invasion of Iraq. I wonder how many of those troops wish I had shouted louder, longer, sooner?īut today’s memo isn’t about politics, it’s about business. This will be a pushbutton war.” And then they accused me of “not supporting our troops.” That was six and a half years ago. More than a few people snorted and said to me, “You’re a fool if you think we’re going to fight this war with men. Meanwhile the Germans were predicting the same amount of time would take the German army to the outskirts of Paris.Įach of these predictions was horribly, tragically wrong.ĭo you remember all the people who claimed we would be “out of Iraq” within 30 days of the invasion? I knew it was politically dangerous and that it would cost me friends, clients and money, but I responded by voicing my concern that we were launching the next Viet Nam. The French believed their army would be at the Rhine within six weeks of the start of the war. Russia was sure to crush the Germans in the east. Belgium would be an obstacle to Germany’s advance andģ. As we get older and more experienced, we overestimate the accuracy of our judgments, especially when the task before us is difficult and when we’re involved with something of great personal importance.”Ģ. Finally, we get to the top of our game and succumb to the trap of thinking that there’s nothing we can’t master. Then we have some success, and begin to feel a little surer of ourselves. “As novices, we don’t trust our judgment. How do we become infected with Fatal Optimism? Malcolm Gladwell says it happens slowly. “Besides greed, another habit of mind should get its share of the blame: the delusional optimism of mainstream, all-American, positive thinking.” Barbara writes, “Everyone knows that you won't get a job paying more than $15 an hour unless you're a ‘positive person’ - doubt-free, uncritical, and smiling - and no one becomes a CEO by issuing warnings of possible disaster.” In her essay, How Positive Thinking Wrecked the Economy, Barbara Ehrenreich writes, The comedians at spoke the truth when they said, “FAILURE: Because sometimes your very best just isn’t good enough.” But I also believe you should count the cost and be willing to pay the price. “If we just think happy thoughts, everything will turn out okay.” Have you ever known a person with Fatal Optimism? On the other hand, few people are as terrifying as Eeyore’s opposite. Pessimistic people remind me of Eeyore the donkey: Few people are as tiresome as the person who lives life in a minor key.
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